Changes in 2025

The 2025 Electricity Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides a transparent set of technology cost and performance data for electric sector analysis. The update of the 2024 ATB to the 2025 ATB includes general updates to all technologies as well as technology-specific updates—both of which are described on this page. Use the following charts to explore the changes from 2024 to 2025.

Parameter value projections by ATB projection year

General Updates to All Technologies

• The ATB timeseries presents data through 2060.
• The financial assumptions are updated to reflect changes in the cost of capital and include the effects of transferability.
• The Base Year is updated from 2022 to 2023 using new market data or analysis where applicable.
• The dollar year is updated from 2022 to 2023 with a 4.1% inflation rate (BLS, 2025).
• Historical data are updated to include data reported through year end 2023.
• Land-Based Wind, Distributed Wind, PV, and Batteries present a pilot Expanded Cost Drivers Case to capture effects on cost beyond R&D.

Generation Updates Summary

• Land-Based Wind: Wind turbine technology configurations are now developed separately from cost and performance assumptions, which allows multiple technologies to be used within each scenario. The scenarios are defined by combining bottom-up engineering-based modeling to inform the Moderate Scenario with calculated learning rates used to inform the Conservative and Advanced Scenarios. Wind turbine technology configuration is now wind-speed-class-specific and is selected by the technology configuration with the lowest levelized cost of energy (LCOE) within each wind speed class. 
• Offshore Wind: There are no major updates in the 2025 ATB other than inflation adjustments and financing terms.
• Distributed Wind: This technology was added to the 2022 ATB for the first time, and there are no major updates in the 2025 ATB.
• Photovoltaics: Initial cost metrics are informed by benchmark results from (Ramasamy et al., 2023).
• Concentrating Solar Power: Component and system cost estimates for the Base Year now include data from recent heliostat bottom-up analysis (Kurup et al., 2022). There have been updates to the defaults in the System Advisor Model (SAM) power tower molten salt physical model.
• Geothermal: New baseline drilling cost curves are applied in the Base Year for all technologies (Akindipe and Witter, 2025). The representative plant size for all binary plants in the Moderate Scenario is updated to 50 megawatts electric (MWe) based on advanced turbine designs (Ormat Technologies, 2024). As in the 2024 ATB, a single-factor learning curve is used to develop future projections in the Moderate and Advanced Scenarios.
• Hydropower: Nonpowered dam (NPD) hydropower estimates are now based on the latest version of the reduced-form nonpowered dam hydropower model (NPDHCM) (Oladosu and Ma, 2024). Data for NSD hydropower remain as in 2024.
• Utility-Scale PV-Plus-Battery: See Photovoltaics and Battery Storage.
• Battery Storage: Overnight capital costs for utility-scale, commercial, and residential storage are updated consistent with the data and methods presented in (Cole et al., 2025). Fixed operations and maintenance (O&M) costs are updated to reflect more detailed modeling from the literature.
• Pumped Storage Hydropower: The closed-loop resource now includes potential reservoirs that use ring dam structures constructed from roller-compacted concrete (RCC), with the cost model being adjusted accordingly to accommodate the alternative dam material. Changes are described in (Rosenlieb et al., 2026) and "Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower Supply Curves" (National Laboratory of the Rockies [NLR]).
• Natural Gas and Coal: Capital costs are escalated for all technologies. New-build conventional natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) configurations include vendor-informed updated performance for both F- and H-Class combustion turbines. (Turner et al., 2025)
• Nuclear: Capital costs from (Abou-Jaoude et al., 2024) are escalated for small modular reactors (SMRs) and large reactors. Microreactor costs for an example microreactor are added based on (Hanna et al., 2024), (Al-Dawood et al., 2025), and (Park et al., 2025).

Technology-Specific Updates

Land-Based Wind

• Base Year: A market average wind turbine was introduced for Base Year cost and performance metrics. A technology transition is then assumed between the Base Year (2023) and the Mid Year (2035), when class-specific future technology configurations are assumed to be implemented (Stehly et al., 2024). In the Expanded Cost Drivers case, capital expenditures (CAPEX) are assumed to be higher in the 2 years following the Base Year because of supply chain stress, high commodity prices, and increased logistics costs.
• Projections: Starting in 2035, the technology configurations are used to estimate the total system CAPEX of a theoretical commercial-scale (e.g., 200-megawatt [MW]) project and changes for each of the scenarios (i.e., Conservative, Moderate, and Advanced) from bottom-up engineering models and assumed learning rates (DNV, 2024). Operating expenditure (OPEX) estimates vary by wind turbine rating and change for each scenario based on assumed learning rates (DNV, 2024); (Liu and Garcia da Fonseca, 2021). Net cash flow projection methods assume technology innovations that increase wind plant energy capture through advanced controls and reduce total system losses for each scenario. 

Offshore Wind

• Base Year: 2023 CAPEX and OPEX estimates are inflated from the 2024 ATB to inform the 2025 ATB Base Year data. Those prior estimates were modeled with the Offshore Renewables Balance of System and Installation Tool (ORBIT) for CAPEX, the Windfarm Operations and Maintenance cost-Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT) for OpEx, and the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) tool for AEP (Nunemaker et al., 2020); (Hammond and Cooperman, 2022); (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 2021). We present floating offshore wind energy costs in 2030 and beyond when the first gigawatt-scale projects could feasibly be constructed in the United States.
• Projections: CAPEX and OPEX projections are inflated from the 2024 ATB to inform the 2025 ATB cost trajectories. These were derived for each scenario in two parts: a long-term cost projection based on global industry experience and a near-term CAPEX adjustment to account for macroeconomic conditions facing early U.S. offshore wind energy projects not captured in the learning curves (rising interest rates, inflation, and supply chain shocks). For the long-term CAPEX projections, we follow the approach outlined in (Shields et al., 2022) to derive learning curves for each scenario from historical offshore wind project CAPEX data and projected global offshore wind deployment.

Distributed Wind

• Base Year: 2023 CAPEX and OPEX estimates from the 2024 ATB are inflated to 2023$ and used to inform 2025 ATB Base Year data (McCabe et al., 2022); (Stehly et al., 2023). Base Year losses were also updated to better correspond with other distributed wind modeling efforts (Sheridan et al., 2024).
• Projections: The 2024 ATB assumption regarding a midyear technology transition has been removed. In last year's ATB, lower-specific-power machines were introduced; however, projections now assume a simpler approach based on learning rates and the same residential, commercial, midsize, and large technologies through time (McCabe et al., 2022); (Stehly et al., 2023). 

Photovoltaics (PV): Utility-Scale, Commercial, and Residential

• Base Year: CAPEX for plants with a commercial operation date of 2023 are based on bottom-up modeling and market data from (Ramasamy et al., 2022), the same source as the 2024 ATB. The O&M costs are based on modeled pricing for PV systems from those same references.
• Projections: The straight-line improvements in cost metrics between 2024 and 2030, 2030 and 2040, 2040 and 2050, and 2050 and 2060 are now calculated using the 2024 benchmarks from (DOE, 2024) as the initial points.

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)

• Base Year: Based on a recent assessment of the industry, bottom-up cost model, and initial supply chain analysis (Turchi et al., 2019); (Kurup et al., 2022), CSP costs in the 2024 ATB are based on cost estimates for CSP components that are available in Version 2024.12.12 of the System Advisor Model (SAM). As in the 2023 ATB, future year projections are informed by the literature, NLR expertise, and technology pathway assessments for reductions in CAPEX. 
  • SAM Version 2023.12.17 has had default updates, including an update in the power cycle calculations to fix an error. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) has been updated with new resource data. The heliostat field design point was changed from 99% to 95% based on findings from the HelioCon Roadmap (Zhu et al., 2022). After these changes were implemented, the SAM optimization routines were run. The SAM CSP molten salt power tower heliostat field size and the power tower height have increased because of the reoptimization.
• Projections: As in the 2023 ATB, the Moderate Scenario assumes a transition to a supercritical CO₂ cycle in the powerblock; advanced coatings on the receiver; improved tanks, pumps, and component configurations for the thermal storage unit; and improved heliostat installation and learning that are because of deployment in the solar field. The Advanced Scenario assumes higher-temperature supercritical CO₂; a higher-temperature receiver; advanced storage compatible with higher temperatures; and low-cost, modular solar fields with increased efficiency.

Geothermal

• Base Year: Estimates are based on bottom-up cost modeling using the Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) and inputs from the GeoVision Business-as-Usual scenario (DOE, 2019). The Base Year is updated to the 2023 USD dollar year based on producer price indices. The significantly lower CAPEX for enhanced geothermal system (EGS) technologies, compared to the 2024 ATB, is because of advancements in drilling performance and efficiency reported in ongoing demonstration and commercial-scale projects (El-Sadi et al., 2024); (Dupriest and Noynaert, 2024). New baseline drilling cost curves were developed and applied to the GETEM input assumptions for drilling and well completion for EGS (and Hydrothermal) technologies (Akindipe and Witter, 2025). The EGS technologies are now updated from nascent to mature because the first commercial EGS plant was under construction in the Base Year (i.e., 2023). This is consistent with the current definition of Technology Maturity in the ATB. Other updates are made to assumptions on required exploration wells (EGS only), drilling and stimulation success rates, and permitting timelines.
• Projections: Future CAPEX projections between 2023 and 2035 for the Moderate and Advanced Scenarios are based on a single-factor learning curve (Fukui et al., 2017). The learning rates applied are 13% for hydrothermal Moderate, 18% for EGS Moderate, 30% for hydrothermal Advanced, and 35% (updated in the 2023 ATB) for EGS Advanced Scenarios (Fukui et al., 2017); (Latimer and Meier, 2017); (El-Sadi et al., 2024). The 2035 CAPEX for the Advanced Scenario is largely based on the Technology Improvement scenario assumptions from the GeoVision Study (DOE, 2019); (Augustine et al., 2019), with updates to EGS well production rate while retaining the 2024 ATB assumptions for EGS drilling success. The 2035 Moderate Scenario CAPEX is based on the Intermediate 1 Drilling Curve detailed as part of GeoVision with improvements in drilling success and EGS well production rate. The Conservative Scenario assumes a 0.5% annual reduction in CAPEX from 2023 to 2060 as implemented in Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2015 (EIA, 2015). After 2035, a 0.5% annual reduction is applied to the CAPEX up to 2060, as in the Conservative Scenario. O&M costs remain constant from 2023 to 2060 in the Conservative Scenario. For each Moderate and Advanced Scenario, a linear drop in O&M cost is applied between 2023 and 2035; they remain constant from 2035 through 2060.

Hydropower

• Base Year: The NPD data in the 2025 ATB are estimates of costs from a reduced-form model estimated with bottom-up simulation results for nearly 20 reference sites (Oladosu and Ma, 2024); (Oladosu et al., 2021). Data for new stream-reach development (NSD) in the 2024 ATB are retained from previous years based on projections developed for the Hydropower Vision study (DOE, 2016) using technological learning assumptions and bottom-up analysis of process and/or technology improvements to provide a range of future cost outcomes (O'Connor et al., 2015). The dollar Base Year was updated to 2023 using the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).
• Projections: The near-term innovation case for NPD is judged to be applicable in the next 5–10 years and includes the use of new materials for penstocks and matrix turbines to reduce the cost of civil works (Oladosu et al., 2021). The NSD projections use a mix of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's technological learning assumptions, input from a technical team of Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers, and the experience of expert hydropower consultants.

Utility-Scale PV-Plus-Battery

• Base Year: CAPEX for plants with a commercial operation date of 2023 is based on new bottom-up modeling and 2023 Q1 market data from (Ramasamy et al., 2023). Cost savings for co-located systems have also been updated using that report. The grid charging cost is updated to the latest Cambium dataset average.
• Projections: As in the 2023 ATB, PV-plus-battery projections in the 2024 ATB are driven primarily by CAPEX cost improvements but also by improvements in energy yield, operating costs, and cost of capital (for the with tax credits case. Projected technology costs are based on a new report (DOE, 2024). 

Battery Storage

• Base Year: Utility-scale, commercial, and residential overnight capital costs have been updated using the bottom-up cost modeling presented in (Cole et al., 2025).
• Projections: Projections are also drawn from (Cole et al., 2025). This literature survey incorporates projections that show near-term increases in price, as well as those that project rapid price declines. Fixed O&M estimates are also updated based on more detailed estimates of battery storage O&M, as explained in (Cole et al., 2025).

Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH)

• Base Year: Capital costs and resource characteristics for closed-loop PSH have been updated to include additional site options where some reservoir pairings include one reservoir that uses a ring dam structure constructed from roller-compacted concrete (RCC). Capital costs for RCC ring dams account for the dam volume and material cost changes relative to earthen embankment dams. These sites allow new possible PSH locations that use flat topography in addition to gullies to facilitate economic reservoir construction. Changes are described in (Rosenlieb et al., 2026) and "Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower Supply Curves" (NLR). Base year data for the PSH subtype utilizing existing reservoirs has not changed.
• Projection: These have not changed for the 2025 ATB. Projected cost reductions in the Advanced Scenario are based on innovations in modularity, materials, pumps and turbines, and closed-loop concepts as described in (DOE, 2016).

Natural Gas and Coal

• Base Year: Base Year cost and performance data for conventional technologies (pulverized coal combustion, natural gas combined cycle) reflect updates to published report (Leptinsky et al., 2024); (Turner et al., 2025).
• Projections: Projections in the 2025 ATB are based on published reports evaluating technology advancements and incorporate applicable technology rate of cost improvement from AEO2025 (EIA, 2025).

Nuclear

• Base Year: For SMRs and large reactors, Base Year costs are taken from (Abou-Jaoude et al., 2024) and escalated. For microreactors, Base Year costs are taken from (Al-Dawood et al., 2025) and (Park et al., 2025). All values are in 2023 dollars.
• Projections: Projections for large reactors and SMRs have not changed and are based on a learning rate for projected deployments across the scenario as described in (Abou-Jaoude et al., 2024). For microreactors, projections are assumed based on the number of units to fully use factor fabrication.

Biopower

• Base Year and Projections: Added Biopower with CCS (carbon capture and storage) based on (EIA, 2025).

References

The following references are specific to this page; for all references in this ATB, see References.